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The numbers shaping private capital.

Private-markets scale and dry powder, capital-call and AI-driven fraud, and a record secondary market. Every figure links to its source.

Scale of Private Capital

Private capital is no longer an alternative.

Private markets have become a core allocation for institutions worldwide. The operational plumbing beneath them (capital calls, distributions, reporting) has not kept pace with that scale.

$20T+

Global private-markets AUM today

Roughly triple a decade ago. What was once a satellite allocation is now central to institutional portfolios, yet much of the operations behind it still runs on email and spreadsheets.

Preqin & industry estimates, 2025

$32T

Projected private-markets AUM by 2030

Preqin expects private markets to nearly double again this decade, led by private credit and a structural rotation of capital from public to private. Private equity alone is forecast to reach $11.8T.

Preqin, Private Markets in 2030

11.5%

Private markets' share of institutional portfolios

Up from 10.5% a year earlier. Official institutions such as central banks and sovereign funds now allocate over 15%. The classic 60/40 portfolio is becoming 50/30/20.

Aviva Investors Private Markets Study, 2025

$3.7T

Dry powder committed but not yet called

Uncalled capital has roughly doubled since 2019. Every dollar is a future capital call, a wire that must be executed, verified, and reconciled. That is the workload swelv automates.

Preqin Global Private Equity Report, 2025

Capital-Call Fraud

A real risk, now at AI scale.

Capital calls move large sums by email and wire, exactly the workflow criminals target. And the attack just got harder to spot: AI-cloned voices and deepfake video calls now defeat the 'phone to confirm' check that used to catch it. In one 2024 case, a finance employee at engineering firm Arup wired $25.6M across fifteen transfers after a video call in which every colleague was an AI-generated deepfake.

$3.04B

BEC losses reported to the FBI in 2025

Up from $2.77B in 2024. Business email compromise is the second-costliest cybercrime category. Private funds are prime targets: large transfers, email-based processes, and limited verification.

FBI IC3 Annual Report, 2025

86%

Of those payments moved by wire or ACH

The stolen funds leave on the same rails a capital call uses, passing every upstream control without triggering an alert. Verification, not detection, is the missing layer.

FBI IC3 Annual Report, 2025

$40B

Projected US gen-AI fraud losses by 2027

Up from $12.3B in 2023, a 32% annual growth rate, as generative AI industrializes impersonation. Deepfake-enabled voice attacks alone surged more than 1,600% in early 2025.

Deloitte Center for Financial Services

Secondary Market

The secondary market is no longer niche.

For decades, selling an LP position meant a distressed fire sale. That has changed. In 2025 the secondary market broke every record: a strategic portfolio-management tool now, not an exit of last resort. The constraint is no longer demand. It is execution infrastructure.

$240B

Global secondary transaction volume in 2025

A record year, up 48% from 2024. LPs and GPs increasingly use secondaries to rebalance and extend, not just to exit. Volume has grown more than fivefold over the past decade.

Jefferies Global Secondary Market Review, 2025

$477B

Total secondary-market capital available

Dedicated secondary funds hold a record $327B; with LP capital and leverage, buying power reaches roughly $477B, far more than annual volume. The gap is execution, not appetite.

Jefferies Global Secondary Market Review, 2025

48%

Share of the market that is now GP-led

GP-led continuation vehicles reached $115B in 2025, up 53% year over year. What was once a niche structure is now half the secondary market.

Jefferies Global Secondary Market Review, 2025

Cost of Selling

Liquidity still has a price.

Even in a record year, moving a private-markets position is slow and expensive, not just in NAV discount, but in time, legal fees, and operational burden.

10-30%

Typical discount to NAV

Pricing firmed in 2025 for quality assets, but discounts persist for mid-market and tail positions. They compensate buyers for illiquidity and transaction complexity, costs that better infrastructure could reduce.

Lazard Secondary Market Report, 2024

60-90d

Average time to close a secondary

A secondary transaction involves GP consent, legal review, transfer documentation, and buyer due diligence. Each step adds weeks. For comparison, public-market trades settle in two days.

Industry estimates

$353K

Estimated friction cost per mid-market transaction

Legal fees, advisory fees, administrative overhead, and opportunity cost. For positions under $50M, these can represent 1-2% of transaction value on top of the NAV discount.

swelv analysis

Data sourced from publicly available industry reports; each figure links to its source. Last updated: July 2026.